German tourism continues to show no signs of recovery in the Balearic Islands. Quite the contrary: in April, the number of arrivals fell by nearly 14% compared to the same month last year, following a first quarter with more or less stable figures. The hotel sector is clear about the source of the problem and points to the lack of institutional promotion as one of the key factors.
The latest data from the National Institute of Statistics (INE) and the Balearic Islands Institute of Statistics (IBESTAT), released this week, confirm a sharp downward trend that appears to be continuing the pattern seen last year—a trend that is even more concerning given that Holy Week fell precisely in the month of April.
In total, there were just over half a million visitors from that country, nearly 80,000 fewer than in the same month last year, as part of a market that brings in nearly five million tourists over the course of the year. Nearly half of the Germans who visit Spain choose the Balearic Islands for their vacations. In fact, Germany remains by far the top source market for the Balearic Islands, ahead of the United Kingdom, unlike the country as a whole, where those two positions are reversed.
The gradual decline in German tourists is becoming more pronounced during the high season, indicating that rising prices in the Balearic Islands are driving them to seek more affordable alternatives, particularly in the Western Mediterranean. The Mallorca Hotel Business Federation (FEHM), however, believes that tourism promotion—especially that aimed at established markets like Germany—has been neglected in recent times. “We have long argued that promotion is necessary, and this has generally been neglected,” says María José Aguiló, executive vice president of the federation. “We are seeing that the German market is lagging slightly behind others, such as the British market, which is performing better, and we believe this is influenced by the fact that there has not been sufficient promotion in certain venues, such as international trade fairs.” In fact, the United Kingdom showed an increase in April that was nearly equivalent to the decline in Germany.
Turespaña’s forecasts for the German market had improved significantly due to the impact of the war in the Middle East. The shift in travel flows toward Spain in general and the Balearic Islands in particular, as travelers sought to avoid the conflict, resulted just over a month ago in a forecast of a 15% increase in bookings for the archipelago and a 32% increase for the mainland. For now, we will have to wait and see if demand ends up following these trends during the peak summer months.
Turespaña made it clear, in any case, that this increase would be due to an extraordinary geopolitical situation with a direct and obvious impact on Germans’ travel choices. The truth is that, war aside, all indicators up to the present point have pointed to a weakening of German demand driven specifically by economic factors.
“German demand appears to have reached its limit in terms of price sensitivity, after two years of accepting substantial price increases,” states Turespaña’s summer trends report. The economic recession has been a major factor over the past two years in shaping household spending on items such as vacations. The trend toward saving has reached its highest level in nearly two decades, according to economic research institutes in the country and the German government itself. All of this has resulted in a gradual but steady decline in demand for travel to the Canary Islands, as shown by the statistics published so far. However, “the outbreak of war has disrupted that market logic,” so the first few months could see a recovery that, although artificial, would significantly reverse the current trend.
For its part, the regional government is downplaying the decline in a market that, in any case, remains the most significant in terms of visitor numbers, and whose shortfall is being more than offset by other markets, particularly long-haul ones. Moreover, the government believes that a decline in visitor numbers during the middle months of the year is actually positive, given the autonomous community’s goals of sustainability and seasonality reduction in all aspects of tourism policy.
