Geopolitical instability – with the war in Iran adding a new point of conflict to the already existing one in Ukraine – has been a decisive factor throughout the year in shaping global tourist flows. The search for safe destinations, far from the conflict zone, has been a clear trend in bookings since last spring. Additionally, the rise in fuel prices, a result of the energy crisis triggered by the conflict, has been another significant factor influencing consumer decisions, making long-haul flights less attractive and significantly impacting travelers’ choices, especially in source markets where the economy has also been affected by the conflict and other factors. The fall/winter season now beginning will not be able to escape these limitations or the influence exerted by the global geopolitical context; although, on the other hand, the tourism industry is demonstrating growing resilience and operational capacity despite—and in some measure driven by—the continuous succession of crises of all kinds, whether military, health, or socioeconomic.

Turespaña has just published its market trend reports for the low season, which describe scenarios with predictable variations at Spain’s main tourist destinations, although these are not as pronounced as might be expected. The general assessment is one of cautious optimism (a mantra that, by the way, has become a regular feature of industry assessments) and remains very attentive to the development of the conflict in the Middle East. Just a few days ago, airlines announced that 145.6 million seats have been scheduled for the winter season in Spain, which represents a 5.5 percent increase compared to the same period last year. In the case of the Balearic Islands, the seat increase is 4.4 percent, reaching 10.37 million passengers. These are the performance forecasts for the main source markets over the coming months.

Germany: a decline in the islands and an increase on the continent

The German economy has not yet recovered the robust health it boasted of not so long ago. The pace of recovery is quite slow, with unemployment and inflation choking the growth prospects of households. Consumer confidence is also at a historic low. However, spending by German tourists in Spain amounted to 11.214 billion euros between January and August 2026, 4.4 percent more than in the same period of the previous year.

This is a group of customers of decisive importance, but their behavior is difficult to measure. This is reflected in the mixed expectations for this winter: Spanish destinations have experienced the most pronounced drop in consideration, despite maintaining second place in this category and keeping a stable satisfaction score. On the other hand, this low season begins with 6.9 million scheduled seats for Spanish destinations, one of the few figures showing growth—2.2 percent more than the previous winter—in contrast to the declines recorded in Italy, Greece, and France.

The share of travelers is also growing and stands at just over 31 percent. In other words, almost one in three. This is not a figure to be taken lightly, and it is likely due to the effects of the conflict in the Middle East. The instability in the Western Mediterranean is exacerbated by tensions in the German airline sector, which is pushing more forward-thinking German tourists to opt for destinations that offer more security. The figures show further disparities: the Canary Islands and the Balearic Islands—the latter being the main winter destination for German tour operators—experience a slight decline, while destinations on the peninsula surpass last year’s figures for the same period.

Total number of visitors from January to August: 8.2 million.

The United Kingdom: the rise of ‘staycations’

The loss of purchasing power is the main factor to consider: the pound sterling always weakens in times of geopolitical tension, and the crisis in Iran has been no exception. Despite an optimistic start to the year, events in 2026 have reinforced what analysts describe as a shift in the behavior of British tourists, with an increasingly clear trend toward shorter stays, choosing more affordable destinations, or traveling during the shoulder season.

A direct consequence of this is the increase in domestic vacations. “Staycations (domestic vacations) have grown due to the extraordinary circumstances of recent years and the British government’s incentive campaigns.” Demand for this type of travel is also driven by the economic climate and the insecurity stemming from the conflict in the Middle East.

However, Spain remains a preferred destination for British travelers—with three times the scheduled air capacity of Italy or France—despite constant warnings from operators like Jet2 about the rise of cheaper destinations, such as Greece, Egypt, or Turkey. Once again, geopolitical conflicts are playing into the hands of the other side of the Mediterranean. Even so, neither Jet2 nor other operators like TUI are giving up on Greece and Turkey.

Despite global uncertainty, the outlook is reasonably optimistic. Platforms like Skyscanner show this increase in interest in Spain during the winter and summer seasons as a convenient, nearby, and safe destination. These are qualities that are normally rewarded by a market highly sensitive to shifts in trend.

Total number of visitors from January to August: 13.9 million.

France: Social and economic tensions are curbing travel

France completes the trio of key source markets for Spain, ranking between the United Kingdom and Germany. In any case, the current tense climate in the country is having a significant impact on forecasts for the fall-winter season. According to Atout France (the public-private organization responsible for promoting domestic and international tourism), it is precisely due to the increased social and economic instability that French people will likely play it safe: better prices, tighter budgets, shorter stays, and closer destinations with guaranteed safety. Reservations will also be made at a later date. In fact, a considerable increase in last-minute bookings is already being observed.

Furthermore, the rise in fuel prices has led to an increase in train travel at the expense of car travel, which has traditionally been the preferred mode of transportation, especially for domestic trips and those to neighboring countries, such as Spain. On the other hand, last summer already showed signs of a decline in hotel stays, which were negatively affected by the increase in stays at friends’ and relatives’ homes (although it should be noted that this category tends to hide a large proportion of illegal tourist accommodations).

Taking all variables into account, the current situation is having a less negative impact in Spain than in other destinations. “For decades, our country has been the leading international destination in the French market thanks to its proximity and ease of access, as well as its safety, connectivity, value for money, and variety of products and activities,” concludes the Turespaña report. while warning, however, that it is advisable to remain cautious in the face of a particularly strained market. The final verdict is moderately optimistic, especially regarding the potential for urban, sports, cultural, or gastronomic getaways.

Total number of visitors from January to August: 9.3 million.

Italy: strong demand, with the Balearic Islands leading among destinations

Demand for Italy remains strong, although tempered by caution – the usual trend in the current climate. Ipsos Future4Tourism reported in September that 61 percent of Italians planned to travel between October and December, three percentage points lower than last year. This is not a significant change, and in any case, European destinations continue to attract travelers, with Spain in first place. The Balearic Islands lead the demand, along with the Valencian Community and Madrid, a trio that reflects a wide diversity of interests in terms of tourism offerings.

Additionally, spending by Italian travelers is showing one of the most significant upward trends this year, while Spain remains in first place in terms of their consideration, travel intentions, and satisfaction, according to industry surveys. Increased connectivity is another key factor: scheduled flights for the winter season have increased by up to 20 percent, including some new routes.

In conclusion, demand remains strong and the appeal of Spanish destinations is undeniable, although economic factors continue to be the key determining factor. Financial difficulties are the main barrier to travel for Italians, Ipsos highlights, so the evolution of the energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine will continue to shape demand patterns in the coming months. “Overall, the outlook for Spain is favorable, although it is subject to economic, energy, and geopolitical developments.”

Total number of visitors from January to August: 4.4 million.

Nordic countries: optimism with some reservations

Statistics tend to group Denmark, Sweden, Norway, and Finland in the same category for several reasons: their geographical proximity, the similarities and even the homogeneity of their languages (with the exception of Finnish) and cultures, and the shared operations of airlines and tour operators… But, above all, because they are markets where demand tends to move as a single bloc. This trend will continue during the upcoming low season, albeit with the usual nuances.

Thus, the four Nordic markets present a mostly favorable outlook for Spanish destinations ahead of the low season, although there are differences in how demand is developing. Sweden shows signs of growth, Denmark remains moderately positive, and Finland maintains its interest in the Mediterranean despite economic uncertainty. Norway presents a more ambiguous picture, with an increase in flight searches that has not yet fully translated into bookings.

In the case of this latter market, competing destinations show very promising prospects compared to previous years, so it will be crucial to ensure good connectivity and maintain competitive prices in the tourism offering. “The priority must be to convert the high level of travel intent and available connectivity into bookings, by improving the quality of the experience, diversifying products, and expanding the off-season offer,” advises Turespaña.

As for Finland, there is a slight downward trend in overall demand. Geopolitical instability—and, above all, Finland’s proximity to Russia—is causing considerable unease among Finns and the business community, which is impacting the economic situation. However, Spain remains the top travel destination, ahead of Greece and Turkey.

Denmark is in a situation similar to Norway’s, with solid data from the relevant destinations. In addition to the usual factors—connectivity and prices—attracting Danish visitors will be closely linked to the industry’s ability to convey certain values associated with environmental sustainability. In this context, “environmental awareness and resident perceptions should not be overlooked as increasingly important factors, not only when planning a trip, but also when deciding whether or not to consider a destination.” The actions of destinations in this area must be aimed at having a measurable and direct—not just cosmetic—impact that supports the destination and distinguishes it from the rest.”

Finally, in the case of Sweden, there are specific factors at play, especially political ones: a possible change of government after the elections could lead to the reintroduction of environmental taxes on aviation, although it is still too early to say what effect such a measure would have if it were to be implemented. However, short-term demand indicators look positive.

Total number of visitors from January to August: 3.4 million.

The US: a growing market that is no longer emerging

The North American market is currently experiencing a period of contrasts. As a destination, it is going through a difficult time due to the “Trump effect,” which this year has solidified its impact on demand with a clear decline and the diversion of visitor flows to nearby alternatives, such as Canada. As a source market, however, it continues to show the vigor it demonstrated after the end of the pandemic. Oxford Economics notes that spending on international travel will continue to grow and could reach €222 billion in 2026 and exceed €229 billion in 2027. These forecasts confirm that Americans’ interest in traveling abroad remains strong, as does their solid spending power.

In this context, Spain has consolidated itself as one of the preferred destinations for a market that can no longer be described as ’emerging’. The US has now consolidated its position among the top ten source markets and, in the first eight months of the year, ranks seventh (the same position as at the end of 2025) in terms of the number of visitors, just between the Nordic countries (Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Finland) and Portugal, although with higher per-tourist spending. If we break down the Nordic bloc by country, the US rises to sixth place. If it continues with the figures it has shown throughout the year, it will set a new record, which “reinforces its strategic importance and its economic potential for the Spanish tourism sector.”

Connections between the two countries are also at a historic high. And 2027 will also be a year of expansion in this regard: there will be a total of 29 direct routes connecting 13 U.S. cities with 8 Spanish destinations. In addition to existing connections, United Airlines will introduce new seasonal routes, such as to Ibiza, and expand others, like the route to Mallorca. “This variety of connections will make it easier for American travelers to reach different regions and will help distribute tourist flows more evenly throughout Spain.”

The high spending power of tourists from that country, combined with their search for cultural, sporting, or gastronomic experiences that offer added value, makes the US an obvious and highly coveted source market for the off-season. If there are no surprises, it will be one of the pillars of the sector’s revenue during this fall-winter period.

Total number of visitors from January to August: 3.3 million.

Other long-distance markets

Among the emerging long-haul destinations, the forecasts are, as one might expect, mixed, but always interesting. Some of these markets have travelers with higher purchasing power, and the creation of new air connections—such as the direct routes to Canada and the United Arab Emirates launched this year from Mallorca—reflects the growing interest in visiting Spain from these different parts of the world.

In the case of Canada, demand for European destinations is experiencing significant growth at the expense of the US and the rest of the Americas, a trend that is being fueled by the Trump Administration’s policies. In addition to the aforementioned Air Canada route between Palma and Montreal, there are two more operated by the same company: one between Tenerife and Montreal and another between Toronto and Spain, as well as a third route operated by Air Transat to Gran Canaria. In total, seven direct routes have been launched for 2026 and another has been announced for 2027, bringing the total to 18 air routes and offering a greater variety of destinations between Canada and Spain, “a real milestone in tourist flows between the two countries.”

Furthermore, the Mexican market is one of those where high-value-added offerings—luxury tourism—remain the focus for the coming years. Mexico offers very favorable prospects as a source market, with high consumer confidence and Spain firmly established among its travel preferences. The 16.5 percent increase in scheduled air seats for this low season demonstrates this. Brazil presents equally positive prospects, with bookings also on the rise, although cultural and economic ties with Portugal continue to give this destination preferential status over Spain.

As for the Asian continent, source markets in the Persian Gulf have experienced disruptions this year due to airspace instability resulting from the armed conflict. Traditionally, these travelers have been among the most affluent, but their ability to reach European destinations is also hampered by rising fuel prices. This, combined with flight delays and cancellations, paints a difficult picture. Despite all this, Spain ranks as one of the leading European destinations in terms of international visitor spending and is one of the most highly rated destinations among travelers. Additionally, the agreement reached between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to revitalize tourism flows in the short and medium term allows for a slightly more optimistic outlook, although this will always depend on how the war develops.

Finally, China and Japan have very specific characteristics and restrictions. In the case of the former, air capacity to Spain this fall and winter will increase by 16 percent. In addition, the most recent studies reveal that Chinese tourists opt for mid-range accommodations and packages designed for organized family vacations, with relaxed itineraries and activities for children and seniors. Turespaña concludes, with regard to Spain, that “this favors the development of cultural, gastronomic, and tailor-made offerings that provide comfort and distinctive experiences.”

Japan, for its part, continues to be considered a top source market, with very high per-traveler spending (average spending in 2025 was 559 euros per person per day). The appeal of Spanish destinations continues to grow among Japanese tourists, and for this off-season, air connectivity is expected to improve thanks to a temporary increase in Iberia’s flight frequencies and the resumption of Lufthansa’s Nagoya-Frankfurt route. Long-haul airfares, however, continue to rise, meaning access is increasingly restricted to high-spending travelers.