The population of the Balearic Islands is set to grow by up to 16.2 percent over the next 15 years, making it the region with the second-highest growth rate, behind the Valencian Community (16.4 percent), according to population projections published Wednesday by the National Statistics Institute (INE).
The statistics therefore estimate that the archipelago's population will increase by more than 203,000 inhabitants by 2041.
Overall, Spain's population is projected to reach 53 million in 2076, an increase of 3.38 million people compared to 2026, driven exclusively by international migration.
Consequently, over the next 15 years, Spain's population will increase by a total of 4,251,150 people (+8.6%), surpassing 53.8 million in 2041. Furthermore, it would rise to 54.6 million in 2051 and then fall again to 53 million in 2076.
According to the INE, the gradual increase in deaths, which will exceed the number of births throughout the projection period, would lead to negative natural growth, while the net migration balance would be positive each year, causing an increase in the population. "The population increase would be due exclusively to international migration," it states.
Regarding migration growth, Spain registered 1,288,562 immigrants in 2024, while 662,294 people moved abroad that same year, resulting in a net migration figure of 626,268 people.
For 2026, the INE forecasts a net migration figure of 626,000 people, similar to that of 2024. From that year, the net migration figure will decrease, although it will remain positive. This would result in a net population gain from migration of 2.7 million people during the first five years of the projection period, 6.3 million in 2040, and 15.5 million in 2075.
As for the population born in Spain, the INE projects that it will gradually decrease, from the current 79.8 percent of the total to 59.6 percent in 50 years.
On the other hand, the number of births is projected to begin increasing slightly in 2026 and continue growing until 2042. Between 2026 and 2040, around 5.3 million children would be born, 6.2 percent fewer than in the previous 15 years.
Starting in 2061, births could increase again as increasingly numerous generations reach their peak fertility ages. However, they would always remain below the number of deaths," the INE explained.
In this regard, it added that the number of births is projected under the assumption that women's fertility will maintain a slight but gradual upward trend. Thus, the average number of children per woman would be 1.16 in 2040, compared to 1.10 in 2024.
Life expectancy at birth is projected to reach 87 years for men and 90 years for women by 2075, representing an increase of 5.6 and 3.5 years, respectively, compared to current figures. Meanwhile, life expectancy at age 65 in 2075 would be 23.5 years for men (3.7 years more than today) and 26.3 years for women (2.7 years more).
Despite this increase in life expectancy, the number of deaths would continue to rise, peaking in 2064.
Given the decline in the birth rate and the increase in deaths, Spain would have more deaths than births (negative natural growth) over the next 50 years. This natural growth would reach its lowest point around 2063 and would then recover slightly.
The population aged 20 to 64, which currently represents 60.9% of the total, would fall to 54.5% by 2052. After a slight recovery, it would rise again to 54.5% in 2076.
Meanwhile, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over, which currently accounts for 21.1% of the total, is projected to reach its peak of 30.9% in 2076.
The number of centenarians (aged 100 or older) is projected to increase thirteenfold over the next 50 years, according to INE projections, which indicate it would increase from 19,301 people in 2026 to 259,810 in 2076.
If current demographic trends continue, the dependency ratio (the percentage of the population under 16 or over 64 compared to the population between 16 and 64) would also peak in 2076 (at 73.2 percent).
By region, 13 regions would experience population increases and four would decrease over the next 15 years. The largest relative increases would be recorded in the Valencian Community (16.4 percent), the Balearic Islands (16.2 percent), and the Community of Madrid (14.4 percent). In contrast, the most pronounced decreases would occur in Extremadura (-4.5%), the Principality of Asturias (-1.6%), and Castile and León (-1%).